NZ 달러 US81c 최고치, 금리 추가 인상이 최대 관심사
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2012.09.05 06:50
고공 비행하는 뉴질랜드 달러가 오늘(24일) 미국 달러대비 81c 허들을 넘었다.
이런 상승세로 24일 정오쯤 키위 달러는 US 81.1c까지 치솟아 지난 25년래 최고치를 기록했다.
이 날 외환시장에서의 뉴질랜드 달러는 하루전인 23일보다 1센트 오른 US80.87c로 결국 마감됐다.
재무장관인 마이클 컬린은 키위 달러의 계속되는 상승세는 미국 달러의 약세에 기인하지만 다른 외국 통화 대비 환율에서도 기록적인 상승폭을 보여주고 있다고 밝혔다.
키위 달러는 일본 엔화 대비에도 어제 96.20에서 지난20년래 최고치인 97.78까지 치솟았다.
가장 눈에 띄는 것은 호주 달러 대비 환율로 이날 A91.45c까지 전날 대비 가장 큰 상승폭을 기록했고, 지난 1985년 변동금리 시행 이후 가장 높은 강한 모습을 보여주고 있다.
7월24일 오후 4시 현재 뉴질랜드 달러 대비 한국 원화 환율은 NZ$1당 753원(현찰 살때)까지 올랐다.
모든 관심은 현재 뉴질랜드 중앙은행이 이번주 목요일에 과연 금리를 추가 인상시킬 것인가에 쏠리고 있고 이에 따른 키위 달러의 추가 상승 예측에 모아지고 있다.
Analysts said it was a 50:50 call with some saying another rate rise would see the economy hit the wall, thus ensuring a currency fall.
The wholesale interest rate market, which yesterday had priced in 17 basis points of the forecast 25 basis point rise, backed away a few pips today as the currency rose, suggesting a rate rise was less probable.
Deutsche Bank NZ's head of global markets, Sean Brown said the kiwi rose for the same old reasons, the currency's high yield.
US model accounts were doing much of the buying.
He said raising rates with the currency about US80c would be a hard call for central bank governor Alan Bollard.
"There will be plenty of people at the RB probably telling him that if you want to get the currency lower, you have to soften the economy and the quickest way to do that is to keep raising rates."
Mr Brown said there were also convincing arguments the other way -- that rates had been raised three times this year and time was needed to allow those actions to take effect.
"I wouldn't be surprised either way, but I'd slightly lean towards a rate hike to try and rebalance things."
Anthony Byett of fxmatters said it was one way traffic today.
He said the pattern after rate review tended to be for the NZ dollar to back off a little, with a US2c fall typical.
The key to a currency fall was less inflationary pressure, which would come when there was less demand in the economy, meaning lower growth rates.
"When we see that happen, we will see the NZ dollar quite likely plummet," Mr Byett said.
Meanwhile, the US dollar fell to a two-month low against the yen and hovered near a record low against the euro as worries about US subprime mortgage woes hurting the credit market and the economy still weighed.
Traders said market sentiment remained bearish for the US dollar, and players were awaiting US economic data later in the week for clues on whether the problems in the housing sector were spreading to broader economic activity.
Sterling extended gains to a 26-year high of $US2.0647 supported by expectations the Bank of England will lift rates to 6.0 percent by the year-end from 5.75 percent now.
[뉴질랜드 헤럴드]
이런 상승세로 24일 정오쯤 키위 달러는 US 81.1c까지 치솟아 지난 25년래 최고치를 기록했다.
이 날 외환시장에서의 뉴질랜드 달러는 하루전인 23일보다 1센트 오른 US80.87c로 결국 마감됐다.
재무장관인 마이클 컬린은 키위 달러의 계속되는 상승세는 미국 달러의 약세에 기인하지만 다른 외국 통화 대비 환율에서도 기록적인 상승폭을 보여주고 있다고 밝혔다.
키위 달러는 일본 엔화 대비에도 어제 96.20에서 지난20년래 최고치인 97.78까지 치솟았다.
가장 눈에 띄는 것은 호주 달러 대비 환율로 이날 A91.45c까지 전날 대비 가장 큰 상승폭을 기록했고, 지난 1985년 변동금리 시행 이후 가장 높은 강한 모습을 보여주고 있다.
7월24일 오후 4시 현재 뉴질랜드 달러 대비 한국 원화 환율은 NZ$1당 753원(현찰 살때)까지 올랐다.
모든 관심은 현재 뉴질랜드 중앙은행이 이번주 목요일에 과연 금리를 추가 인상시킬 것인가에 쏠리고 있고 이에 따른 키위 달러의 추가 상승 예측에 모아지고 있다.
Analysts said it was a 50:50 call with some saying another rate rise would see the economy hit the wall, thus ensuring a currency fall.
The wholesale interest rate market, which yesterday had priced in 17 basis points of the forecast 25 basis point rise, backed away a few pips today as the currency rose, suggesting a rate rise was less probable.
Deutsche Bank NZ's head of global markets, Sean Brown said the kiwi rose for the same old reasons, the currency's high yield.
US model accounts were doing much of the buying.
He said raising rates with the currency about US80c would be a hard call for central bank governor Alan Bollard.
"There will be plenty of people at the RB probably telling him that if you want to get the currency lower, you have to soften the economy and the quickest way to do that is to keep raising rates."
Mr Brown said there were also convincing arguments the other way -- that rates had been raised three times this year and time was needed to allow those actions to take effect.
"I wouldn't be surprised either way, but I'd slightly lean towards a rate hike to try and rebalance things."
Anthony Byett of fxmatters said it was one way traffic today.
He said the pattern after rate review tended to be for the NZ dollar to back off a little, with a US2c fall typical.
The key to a currency fall was less inflationary pressure, which would come when there was less demand in the economy, meaning lower growth rates.
"When we see that happen, we will see the NZ dollar quite likely plummet," Mr Byett said.
Meanwhile, the US dollar fell to a two-month low against the yen and hovered near a record low against the euro as worries about US subprime mortgage woes hurting the credit market and the economy still weighed.
Traders said market sentiment remained bearish for the US dollar, and players were awaiting US economic data later in the week for clues on whether the problems in the housing sector were spreading to broader economic activity.
Sterling extended gains to a 26-year high of $US2.0647 supported by expectations the Bank of England will lift rates to 6.0 percent by the year-end from 5.75 percent now.
[뉴질랜드 헤럴드]
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